Memorandum

Date       February 20, 2014

TO           Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization

FROM      Karl H. Quackenbush
CTPS Executive Director

RE            Work Program for: South Boston Waterfront Transportation Plan: Modeling Support

Action Required

Review and approval

Proposed Motion

That the Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization, upon the recommendation of the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, vote to approve the work program for the South Boston Waterfront Transportation Plan: Modeling Support, presented in this memorandum

Project Identification

Unified Planning Work Program Classification

Planning Studies

CTPS Project Number

23325

Client

Massachusetts Department of Transportation

Project Supervisor: Ethan Britland

CTPS Project Supervisors

Principal: Scott Peterson

Manager: Ying Bao

Funding

MassDOT Contract #TBD

Impact on MPO Work

The MPO staff has sufficient resources to complete this work in a capable and timely manner. By undertaking this work, the MPO staff will neither delay the completion of nor reduce the quality of any work in the UPWP.

Background

Substantial public infrastructure investment has catalyzed the transformation of the South Boston Waterfront in recent years. Many large projects, listed below, have enhanced the district’s redevelopment. To date, some 30 million square feet of development has been built or planned with room for an additional 15 million square feet.

• The Ted Williams Tunnel and the Seaport Access Road dramatically increased vehicular access.
• The Boston Harborwalk was extended and new parks and open space were established in the district
• The Silver Line provided a direct rapid transit link to downtown Boston.
• The Boston Convention and Exhibition Center (BCEC) opened, creating a world class meeting and convention destination.
• Boston’s bike share program, Hubway, was launched, and several miles of bike lanes were added to existing roadways in the district
• District infrastructure, including streets, truck routes, sidewalks, parks, lighting, and drainage, was built by the City of Boston, Massport, the Massachusetts Convention Center Authority (MCCA), and the Central Artery/Tunnel Project.

The massive change associated with such redevelopment presents a challenge—how to create a balanced and integrated multimodal transportation system capable of serving the district for its long-term success. A South Boston Transportation Study was commissioned in 2000, in the midst of some of the major construction, by the City of Boston and Massport. There is a need for a better unified district plan given the realities of the current situation and future forecasts. The major transportation infrastructure listed above has been in place for a decade, so the expected nature and pace of development in the area is better understood now than it was then.

A Better City (ABC), in conjunction with Massport, the Massachusetts Convention Center Authority (MCCA), the City of Boston, and MassDOT, has recently solicited professional services to provide transportation planning that takes an integrated multimodal approach that services multiple user groups (e.g., employees, residents, conventioneers and other visitors, maritime industrial businesses) and involves all major stakeholders, public and private. The plan will provide for anticipated growth in commercial, tourist, and residential development (including expansion of the BCEC), and also accommodate the equally important needs of the maritime industrial activities of the Port of Boston. CTPS has been asked to provide technical assistance to the consultant in the development of such planning.

Objectives

The two principal objectives of this work program are:

1. To provide data to assist the project team with completion of the work
2. To provide modeling support to the project team to examine the existing roadway and transit conditions and future year forecasts

Work Description

CTPS staff have identified seven tasks that are necessary for completing this work:

Task 1  Revise Land Use Data and Update the Roadway Network

CTPS will provide information from the MPO regional travel demand model to the project team. This will include socioeconomic data, transportation analysis zone (TAZ) geography, and study-area roadway networks (in shapefile format) for the base year (2012) and the horizon year (2035). CTPS will coordinate with the project team to review the fundamental elements of the study-area network, including the roadway direction, number of lanes, speeds, and capacities.

CTPS will revise the demographic data and roadway network in the South Boston Waterfront area based on feedback from the project team. Related input files for using the regional model will be updated.

Product of Task 1

Updated study-area land use data and roadway network

Task 2  Perform Base-Year Model Calibration

CTPS will calibrate the base-year model set based on all available counts collected by the project team for this study. The calibration efforts will focus on comparing peak-period volumes (AM and PM) to observed roadway counts. Daily ridership on selected transit services in the study area, primarily for the Silver Line, will be matched to recent counts. CTPS will calibrate other model elements (such as trip distribution and mode split) to the regional levels.

Product of Task 2

A calibrated multimodal travel demand model set for the study area

Task 3  Model 2035 No-Build Scenario

CTPS will develop a 2035 no-build scenario for this study based on the MPO’s current Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP). The no-build scenario will incorporate any land use and network changes suggested by the project team. The outputs of this scenario will be used as the basis for analyzing the growth between the base year and future year.

Product of Task 3

A 2035 no-build model set for the study area

Task 4  Extract Subarea Network and Trip Tables for Peak Periods

CTPS will support the project team to build a subarea model for their traffic study. In this task, CTPS will extract a subarea network and accompanying trip tables for the base-year and 2035 no-build scenarios. CTPS will work with the project team to create a subarea polygon that overlays the regional model, and to define the external stations. Typically the subarea will be consistent with the study area, although in some cases it may be larger in order to include certain travel patterns within the regional model area. This subarea extraction effort will be done for the AM and PM peak periods.

Product of Task 4

Subarea networks and trip tables for the base-year and 2035 no-build scenarios

Task 5  Analyze and Extract Results for Base-Year and 2035 No-Build Scenarios

In this task, CTPS will summarize the results of the base-year and 2035 no-build model runs for the project team. The results will include the network volumes in an expanded subarea, person and vehicle trips by mode by time of day at an aggregated regional level, and transit boardings at selected stations. CTPS will aggregate Logan International Airport passenger trips and employee trips in the same way that the person and vehicle trip tables were aggregated.

CTPS will perform a transit select link analysis at up to four stations (South Station, Broadway, Court House, and World Trade Center) to summarize the transit access volumes of the selected stations. This analysis can help the project team better understand the origins and destinations of transit users of particular stations. A transit select link analysis for up to 10 transit line segments on the Silver Line, Red Line, and Blue Line, revealing their travelers’ origins and destinations, will also be performed.

Products of Task 5

• Graphic summaries of roadway volumes
• Tabular summaries of station boardings
• Tabular summaries of district-level person and vehicle trips
• Tabular summaries of district-level Logan passenger and employee trips
• Tabular summaries of station access volumes
• Tabular summaries of transit select link results

Task 6  Model the Alternatives and Analyze Results

If CTPS receives further requests, it will model up to three build scenarios and summarize the results in the same way as in Task 5. These alternatives will include a land use change, a highway and/or transit network change, and, finally, the combination of the land use, highway, and transit changes.

Products of Task 6        

• Graphic summaries of roadway volumes
• Tabular summaries of station boardings
• Tabular summaries of district-level person and vehicle trips
• Tabular summaries of district-level Logan passenger and employee trips
• Tabular summaries of station access volumes
• Tabular summaries of transit select link results

Task 7  Coordinate with the Project Team and Provide Ongoing Technical Assistance

CTPS will work with the project team throughout the study, with an anticipated time frame for performing the modeling of approximately one year. In the event of project delays beyond the control of CTPS, the timing of project deliverables will be consistent with revised schedules set by the project team. CTPS staff time and budget estimates reflect attendance at a maximum of four internal meetings (between CTPS and the project team). CTPS will fulfill any data requests from the project team when the data are readily available.

Product of Task 7

Coordination with the study team, attendance at meetings, and other assistance as needed

Estimated Schedule

It is estimated that this project will be completed six months after work commences. The proposed schedule, by task, is shown in Exhibit 1.

Estimated Cost

The total cost of this project is estimated to be $90,239. This includes the cost of 27.0 person-weeks of staff time and overhead at the rate of 97.42 percent. A detailed breakdown of estimated costs is presented in Exhibit 2.

KQ/YB/BK/yb